LITTLE ROCK, AR – Sabato’s Crystal Ball has moved Arkansas’s 2nd Congressional District from Safe Republican to Likely Republican, one of several House rating changes announced today, all in Democrats’ direction. Crystal Ball noted that Republicans’ polling position hasn’t improved heading into fall, while Democrats are hitting new highs in the generic ballot nationally.

This marks the first time AR-02 has moved off Safe Republican status since Arkansas Republicans redrew the district’s lines in 2021 to shore up Hill’s advantage.

The change follows months of movement on the ground in AR-02, built around Chris Jones’s platform of affordability and accountability for all. 

The campaign’s poll in May already showed Jones ahead of incumbent French Hill, 46-43, in a district Republicans have held since 2013. Pollsters attributed the lead to genuine dissatisfaction with Hill among independents and some Republicans. By August, a Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College independent poll had Jones up 48-44.

National Democrats also saw the opportunity before today’s rating change. The DCCC named AR-02 a “District in Play” in August. 

Arkansas’s March primary results showed the same pattern: Hill won his own primary by only a narrow margin more than Jones won his, in a seat Hill has held since 2015. Jones has picked up national and local endorsements throughout the cycle, each one citing his focus on affordability and the cost of living.

“This rating change confirms what Arkansans have been telling us: people are tired of paying too much for gas, groceries, and healthcare, and they want a representative who answers to them instead of the banks,” said Chris Jones. “Crystal Ball moves slowly and rarely, so this reflects a trend that’s been building for a long time. A district can be drawn to favor one side, but people speak louder when others try to silence them. This is recognition that people in the district share our views: we need to hold elected officials accountable for their inaction. It’s also why I am committed to making sure Arkansans can live without constantly falling behind..”

The campaign is treating today’s news as momentum and opportunity, and staying focused on the same platform that built the trend: affordability and accountability for all. Volunteers and staff continue voter contact ahead of Arkansas’s day one voting, October 19th. Supporters are encouraged to sign up to canvass or make calls, make a plan to vote on day one, bring someone with them, and contribute if they’re able.